STRATEGIC FORECASTING

Speed of changes and its unpredictable growth receives many critics about the application of the strategy based on the development of theories such as that of reactivity. It is the strategy of the firefighter, that of the fire extinguisher, which although it is true that in the past, when the rates of change were slower, it worked quite well, now it seems obsolete and not recommended because the one who copies each time arrives later.

 

Some experts argue that such a strategy is still valid. They consider that since we do not see the future that is coming clearly, what we have to do is try to be more and more flexible and adaptable. Flexibility is the buzzword. The concept itself is very seductive, but those who are seduced by it forget that instant adaptability is nothing more than a mere illusion, a mirage.

 

They forget that skills, knowledge and experience cannot be renewed instantly, much less when we talk about human capabilities of a given organization. The mobilization of the different actors involved around a project for the future implies appropriation and this also requires a time of maturation and even a return of experiences.

 

It is necessary that the ongoing projects have a certain period of time to be able to experiment with them. Adapting to changes is something that cannot be improvised. If you want to succeed in this test, it is necessary to promote these three basic concepts for the transition to the new emerging paradigm: Innovation, Competitiveness, Sustainability, ICS, which must be done in the Quadruple Helix class: Governments, Companies, Academia and R&D and organized civil society.

 

In this process we can clearly see three main actors. In the foreground, the Company appears as executor by implementing concrete actions that have been stated; the Academy and R&D constitute a source of inspiration and contribution of a substantial part of the necessary knowledge to guide action in the right direction. Government can perform strongly through normative capacity and directing public spending and investment. Finally, a society. Organized Civil Society cannot be confined to a merely passive role that suffers or benefits from the dynamics generated by the other three Actors. Organized Civil Society has a wealth of knowledge and experience, independence and critical thinking, values ​​and capacity for commitment, which is what can make the difference between a biased evolution and a balanced evolution. As well as between an elitist process managed and for the benefit of a few protagonists and an agglutinating, inclusive process that reinforces social cohesion.

 

What we sow today will be what we will reap tomorrow. We should even take advantage of this crisis to reflect and stand at the crossroads of life and think about our future. A multitude of possible futures open up in front of us and it will depend on what we do now so that we can reach one future or another.

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Currently, in addition to the coronavirus crisis, we live in a time in which, since we have not done what had to be done for decades, the serious threat posed by climate change can blow up in our faces. We are also living in exciting times that coincide with what a Change of Era represents. A radical and unprecedented change in the current demographic, social, economic, energy and technological paradigm. A change in the face of which paradoxically, we remain silent, indecisive and stopped, without making any decision that does not mean doing more of the same.

 

The history of humanity is full of episodes where it is clearly shown that the future is the product of our ambition, our intentionality, our will, our collective effort.

 

The future stands open to us and in these conditions everything depends to a great extent, on our ability to know what we want. It is about determining what the future is the result of our desire, our will and our efforts to use our resources, our time and our struggle to root out the useless ballast received from the past, an inheritance that is a heavy burden for us to conquer a better world.

 

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